Monday, May 3, 2010

“David Cameron – The Leader of Conservative Party is “INCHING” towards a Simple Majority ± 15 Seats.(Majority Plus / Minus 15 Seats): TODAYS CHANAKYA”

The Telegraph.: New Delhi,India -- Monday, May 03, 2010 3:26:00 PM

The Labour party rule in U.K seems to be numbered: TODAYS CHANAKYA”

Our latest Monthly Opinion Poll on U.K Election – 6 May 2010, shows and predicts that the Conservatives on 37 %, Labour on 28 %, Liberal democrats on 26 % and Others on 9 %.

Our poll gives the Conservative 326 ± 15 seats (326 Plus / Minus 15 Seats) an overall majority, in the house of 650 seats.

Todays Chanakya New Delhi asked voters about the prospect of a hung Parliament in Great Britain. 74 % said they would prefer a majority government. Those who supported majority government were asked how they would prefer to get a majority. 37 % said Conservative and 29 % Labour.Mr. Cameron still seems to be the most capable Prime Minister in the present circumstances. Cameron is now 36 %, Brown 28 % and Clegg on 30 %. Mr. Clegg is seen as rather inexperienced (78%) but most honest (52%).

Remember that almost all the opinion poll commissioned - till today (3rd May 2010) by different agencies in U.K are projecting a hung Parliament in U.K Election 2010.

One matter merits more than a technical explanation in Great Britain. The Problem with all analysis of election is that they ultimately rest on the votes of individuals. Votes are almost necessarily treated as equal expression of support for everyone though a vote means very different things to different people. To some it is responding statement of faith in a leading party or on individual but not the party, to other it is marginal, almost random choice without knowing the differences in the issues and policies at the national level, which make the analysis some what more difficult for the pollsters. Remember that the voting statistics do have some accurate measurements attached to them, but pollsters should remember how varied in quality the bricks of various methods and steps that one is using are.

The traditional wellness in election commentary all over the world is tendency to focus on absolute figures. There is also a tendency in most election prediction in U.K to hedge towards middle to predict a close result. This is what the U.K leading agencies are looking at present and also in case of last general election 2005. To explain this phenomena in U.K leading agencies, we are having the data’s of the various agencies. Remember our final result of U.K 2005, USA 2004 and USA 2009 matches some what perfect,specially with reference to November USA 2004. Remember that every agency in USA on Opinion and Exit poll’s predicted –“Too Close To Call” where as we predicted George W. Bush, Clear winner in USA 2004 Presidential Election.

U.K Election 2005 Opinion Polls :

General Election Voting Intension : Great Britain 2005

Opinion Poll
1.Populus / Times : Survey End Date 24/04/05
Lab 41% , Con 33%, L Dem 19%, Labour Lead 8%

2. NOP/Independent : Survey End Date 24/04/05
Lab 40% , Con 30%, L Dem 21%, Labour Lead 10%

3. You Gov/ Telegraph : Survey End Date 24/04/05
Lab 37% , Con 33%, L Dem 24%, Labour Lead 4%

4. ICM/Mirror : Survey End Date 23/04/05
Lab 39% , Con 33%, L Dem 20%, Labour Lead 6%

5. Populus/ Times : Survey End Date 23/04/05
Lab 41% , Con 32%, L Dem 20%, Labour Lead 9%

6. You Gov/Sunday times : Survey End Date 23/04/05
Lab 37% , Con 33%, L Dem 23%, Labour Lead 4%

7. CommRes/Independent on Sunday : Survey End Date 22/04/05
Lab 40% , Con 35%, L Dem 18%, Labour Lead 5%

8. ICM/Sunday Telegraph : Survey End Date 22/04/05
Lab 39% , Con 33%, L Dem 21%, Labour Lead 6%

 9. Populus/ Times : Survey End Date 22/04/05
Lab 40% , Con 33%, L Dem 20%, Labour Lead 7%

10. You Gov/ Telegraph : Survey End Date 21/04/05
Lab 37% , Con 34%, L Dem 22%, Labour Lead 3%

11. Populus/ Times : Survey End Date 20/04/05
Lab 39% , Con 34%, L Dem 20%, Labour Lead 5%

12. MORI/Sun : Survey End Date 19/04/05
Lab 39% , Con 32%, L Dem 22%, Labour Lead 7%

It certainly matters in any opinion poll that how representative of the entire population are. But it also matters regarding the number of people that were interviewed with reference to the degree of accuracy in history of any opinion poll of any country.

Methodology : Todays Chanakya New Delhi interviewed between 30th April and 2nd May 2010, demographically representative of all Great Britain adults,1856 random sample were collected. Remember data were weighted to be representative of all adults only and not by past vote recall, where Chances of Margin of Error is more than ± 3 %.

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Todays Chanakya is the registered TradeMark of RNB Research. We were the only one in India who predicted Congress victory for 200 seats in Lok Sabha 2009 and our analysis was covered in Electronic as well as print media during Lok Sabha 2009.

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Exit Poll on U.K Election 2010 is on 6th May 2010

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